11 Key Senate Races in the 2024 Election to Keep an Eye On

With the 2024 elections looming on the horizon, Senate Democrats find themselves in a precarious position as they fight to keep their majority. The political landscape looks challenging for Democrats with a slim 51-49 majority in the upper chamber. Independent Sen. Joe Manchin’s departure from Congress almost guarantees a Republican victory in West Virginia, a deeply conservative state. In addition, Democrats are up for reelection in two states won by Trump in 2020, and are facing tough battles in six other states to maintain control.

On the other hand, Republicans have only two seats where they might have a chance to turn the tide in their favor: Texas and Florida, along with a surprisingly competitive race between an independent candidate and a Republican incumbent. Here are the key races to keep an eye on:

Ohio Senate Race: Bernie Moreno vs. Sherrod Brown

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is fighting to retain his seat in the Senate against businessman Bernie Moreno in a highly contested race. Moreno, a Trump-supported Republican, has used his personal funds to stay competitive with Brown. However, Moreno faces criticism for his legal issues and controversial comments, providing Brown with an opportunity to capitalize on the situation. The Cook Political Report considers this race a toss-up, with Brown’s colleagues putting in significant effort to support his reelection campaign.

Michigan Senate Race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

In Michigan, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are vying for a Senate seat. Slotkin, known for her moderate stance, faces a tough challenge from Rogers in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican senator in thirty years. The Cook Political Report rates this race as highly competitive, with Slotkin leading in recent polls.

Maryland Senate Race: Larry Hogan vs. Angela Alsobrooks

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan are in an unexpectedly competitive race in Maryland. Hogan’s popularity and bipartisan approach have made this race a close call, threatening a potential Republican victory in a traditionally Democratic state.

Nevada Senate Race: Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown

Senator Jacky Rosen is facing a formidable challenge from businessman Sam Brown in Nevada. Although Democrats have historically held this seat, the state’s shifting dynamics make this year’s race more uncertain. Rosen, with the backing of Vice President Kamala Harris, is striving to maintain her lead over Brown.

Texas Senate Race: Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred

Rep. Colin Allred is mounting a strong challenge against Senator Ted Cruz in Texas, a traditionally Republican stronghold. Allred’s campaign aims to flip the seat held by Cruz, who is well-known in the state for his conservative views. Despite the historical odds, Texas remains a key target for Democrats in the Senate.

Arizona Senate Race: Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake

Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are locked in a battle for a Senate seat in Arizona. Gallego, a progressive Marine veteran, faces Lake, an ally of former President Trump known for her controversial remarks. Arizona’s unpredictable political landscape makes this race a critical one for both parties.

Montana Senate Race: Tim Sheehy vs. Jon Tester

Senator Jon Tester faces a tough reelection bid in Montana against Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Tester, a moderate Democrat, has managed to win over Republican-leaning voters in the past, but this year’s race is more challenging due to changing demographics in the state. Republicans see Montana as a potential pickup opportunity in this election cycle.

Pennsylvania Senate Race: Bob Casey vs. Dave McCormick

Senator Bob Casey faces off against challenger Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, a battleground state with a history of close races. McCormick’s campaign centers on portraying Casey as an establishment figure, while Casey positions McCormick as an out-of-touch outsider. Pennsylvania’s Senate race is crucial for both parties in the battle for control of the upper chamber.

Wisconsin Senate Race: Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde

Senator Tammy Baldwin is running for a third term in the Senate against Republican Eric Hovde in Wisconsin. Baldwin, the first openly LGBTQ+ Senator, has managed to attract rural voters despite her progressive politics. Hovde, a former candidate with deep pockets, is aiming to unseat Baldwin by highlighting their policy differences. Wisconsin’s Senate race is rated as a toss-up, indicating a close contest.

West Virginia Senate Race: Jim Justice vs. Glenn Elliott

Senate Democrats have resigned themselves to losing Senator Joe Manchin’s seat following his decision not to seek reelection in West Virginia. Democrat Glenn Elliott faces an uphill battle against current Republican Governor Jim Justice, a popular figure in the state. Political observers rate this race as solidly Republican, signaling a probable victory for the GOP.

Nebraska Senate Race: Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osborn

Senator Deb Fischer’s seemingly secure reelection bid in Nebraska has been jolted by a surprisingly competitive challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn. Osborn, a Navy veteran and union leader, has succeeded in narrowing the gap against Fischer, forcing Republicans to pay closer attention to the race. Nebraska’s Senate election is now deemed a lean Republican by analysts, suggesting a potential upset in the traditionally red state.