8% of Americans are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris because Taylor Swift endorsed her.

Recently, a survey of 1,755 U.S. adults conducted from September 11 to 13 shed light on the potential impact of Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 election. While the “Swift effect” may not be as significant as some had hoped, there are still intriguing findings worth exploring.

Initially, Swift’s popularity took a hit after her public endorsement of Harris. In early August, 58% of Americans viewed Swift favorably, compared to only 28% who had an unfavorable opinion of her, resulting in a 30-point gap. However, following her endorsement, the gap narrowed to just 11 points, with 46% of Americans holding a favorable view of her and 35% viewing her unfavorably.

Interestingly, Republicans accounted for most of the shift in perception. While in August they viewed Swift favorably by an 8-point margin, now they are more likely to see her unfavorably. In contrast, the majority of Democrats continue to view Swift favorably, with little change since August.

Despite the attention surrounding Swift’s endorsement, only a third of Americans expressed a preference for her to publicly support political candidates she endorses. The majority believe that her endorsement will have no impact on their voting decisions come Election Day.

While there are signs of backlash from Trump supporters who were already committed to voting for him, the impact on undecided or persuadable voters seems limited. Among this group, only 3% indicated that Swift’s endorsement increased their likelihood of supporting Harris, while 14% claimed it made them less likely.

However, the survey revealed a more positive outlook among Americans, with a majority believing that Swift’s endorsement will benefit Harris’s campaign. Even among Republicans, more individuals anticipate a positive effect on Harris as a result of the Swift endorsement.

Surprisingly, 12% of all U.S. adults meet three key criteria: they view Harris favorably, see Trump unfavorably, and are not registered to vote. Among this group, 11% expressed that Swift’s endorsement significantly increased their likelihood of voting for Harris. If this group were to register and vote for Harris, it could contribute a crucial additional percentage point in her favor.

With over 284 million Instagram followers, Swift holds significant influence. Following her endorsement, over 400,000 individuals clicked on a link she shared to vote.gov. While Swift may not sway dedicated Trump supporters, her endorsement could motivate nonvoters to show up for Harris, potentially making a difference in a closely contested election.