AARP Poll: Trump ahead of Biden in state that hasn’t voted Republican since 2004
Former President Donald Trump is leading the charge in a critical battleground state as the nation gears up for the 2024 presidential election. According to a recent poll conducted by the AARP, Trump holds a 3-percentage point advantage over President Joe Biden in Nevada, with 48% of likely voters favoring Trump compared to 45% supporting Biden.
In a scenario where independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included, Trump’s lead expands to a more comfortable 7 points. However, Kennedy has not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot, and state Democrats have lodged a lawsuit challenging his eligibility.
Interestingly, Trump’s lead is particularly strong among voters over the age of 50, where he holds a double-digit advantage over Biden at 53% to 41%. Despite this, Biden manages to maintain a lead among Hispanic voters in this age group, with 51% backing Biden compared to 41% for Trump.
The significant Hispanic population in Nevada, comprising 22% of eligible voters, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election in the Silver State. Maria Moore, AARP Nevada state director, emphasized the importance of the Hispanic vote in the state, highlighting its potential impact on the election results.
Nevada has emerged as a closely watched state that could hold the key to the White House in the upcoming election. Historically, the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. However, after Biden narrowly secured victory in Nevada in 2020, Republicans are optimistic about their chances of flipping the state.
The AARP survey also delved into the dynamics of the U.S. Senate race in Nevada, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is facing off against Republican challenger Sam Brown. Rosen currently leads Brown by a margin of 47% to 42%, with strong support from Hispanic voters bolstering her campaign.
When it comes to the top issues that matter to Nevada voters, the economy, rising food prices, immigration, and border security take center stage. These issues are likely to influence voter opinions and sway their decisions at the ballot box.
The survey findings suggest that split-ticket voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the election. With 43% of older voters identifying as straight-ticket Republicans and 35% as straight-ticket Democrats, the remaining 23% are open to splitting their tickets, indicating a significant portion of undecided voters up for grabs.
Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward, in collaboration with the Democratic firm Impact Research, conducted the survey among 1,368 likely voters interviewed between June 12 and 18. The margin of error for the poll stands at 4%, ensuring a relatively accurate representation of voter sentiments in Nevada.
As the battle for Nevada intensifies and the 2024 presidential election draws near, the political landscape in the Silver State promises to be closely contested. With Trump leading the charge and Biden aiming to retain his support base, Nevada is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the election and determining the next occupant of the Oval Office.
