Analysis shows Trump plan to deport millions of immigrants is very expensive.
In the midst of the final month of the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump is intensifying his commitment to executing the most substantial mass deportation effort in American history.
Last week in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump garnered enthusiastic applause from a rally crowd by affirming his intention to “get these people out” and deport them swiftly. In Aurora, Colorado, on Friday, he declared to rally attendees that he would “rescue Aurora and every town that has been invaded and conquered.”
However, immigration researchers, lawyers, and economists have highlighted significant constitutional, humanitarian, and economic challenges presented by Trump’s frequently reiterated vow. Apart from the expected harm to immigrant families, communities, and local economies, the roundup and deportation of approximately 11 million individuals is nearly unfeasible to finance, as per an analysis of U.S. budget and immigration court data by CBS News.
Even if Congress sanctioned the hundreds of billions of dollars in expenditures, deporting every undocumented immigrant residing in the U.S. would require much longer than four years, the analysis indicates.
CBS News’ study of immigration system data discovered:
- Apprehending and deporting just 1 million people could cost taxpayers around $20 billion.
- Deporting 11 million individuals over four years would exceed 20 times the nation’s annual expenditure over the last five years on deporting residents in the U.S.
- Assuming Trump secured the funding and managed to significantly expand the staff in immigration enforcement and courts, the backlog of cases would escalate instead of decrease, potentially reaching millions of new cases based on the experiences of the previous two administrations.
During Trump’s administration, despite promising to deport millions in 2016, only 325,660 individuals were deported in the fiscal years he served.
The cost of deportation to taxpayers
Over the past five fiscal years, it reportedly cost an average of $19,599 to deport a single person, based on a CBS News analysis of federal data. This figure is derived from budget allocations for each phase of the deportation process: apprehension, detention, immigration court proceedings, and transportation out of the country.
From 2021 to 2023, as migrant crossings at the southern border peaked, Immigration and Customs Enforcement allocated roughly a sixth of its deportation-focused workforce to the border to support Customs and Border Patrol. Despite a subsequent decrease in crossings, the cost per deportation surged due to fewer deportations from the U.S. interior.
Even with lower border crossing numbers, the cost of deporting one person under Trump’s administration remained at $14,614. To deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants estimated at that time would have incurred costs ranging from $40 billion to $54 billion annually over the upcoming presidential term, with ICE receiving only $9 billion in funds last year.
Another analysis from the American Immigration Council estimated the total cost of deporting 11 million individuals even higher, at $315 billion.
“It can’t possibly be anywhere near 11 million”
Trump suggested that local law enforcement would aid in mass deportation, claiming they possess the necessary information. Nevertheless, experts contend that the situation is more complex than that.
Abigail Andrews, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California, San Diego, noted, “One of the assumptions in the Trump proposal is that those local police and sheriffs are going to cooperate… We know from the last couple of decades that one of the major ways for cities and states to dissent around immigration processes has been for the police to cooperate or not cooperate with ICE.”
Trump proposed deploying the National Guard to identify and detain immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally, a plan that might face legal obstacles since federal troops cannot perform civilian law enforcement without congressional authorization. Trump argued against this restriction by asserting that undocumented immigrants are not classified as civilians.
Conducting mass deportations may lead to racial profiling of citizens and noncitizens alike while trying to identify undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S.
Donald Kerwin, editor and founder of the Journal on Migration and Human Security, cautioned, “There’s no way to do this without major civil liberties violations… At the end of the day, it can’t possibly be anywhere near 11 million.”
While Trump pledged a mass deportation during his initial presidential campaign in 2016, ICE only deported 325,660 individuals from within the U.S. during the fiscal years encompassing his term.
A mass deportation, depending on its scale, is unlikely to conclude within four years. Presently, immigration courts in the U.S. are grappling with a backlog of 3.7 million cases, requiring another eight years and an additional 700 judges to eliminate the backlog entirely.
If the government appoints 150 new judges each year for the following four years and issues notices to appear to 11 million undocumented immigrants, the courts would face a backlog of 13.5 million cases by FY 2028.
Trump might opt for measures that bypass the legal process for certain immigrants, potentially decreasing the overall backlog. Under a 1996 law, individuals apprehended within 100 miles of the border within two weeks of unauthorized entry could be deported without a court hearing.
Mass deportations would diminish job opportunities
In addition to the outlined expenses, deporting millions of migrants could adversely affect the U.S. economy and labor market.
Studies have indicated that Obama’s Secure Communities program, which deported nearly half a million undocumented immigrants, not only removed these workers from the labor force but also had a subsequent impact on the employment and wages of U.S.-born individuals.
Analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics revealed that a mass deportation of even 1.3 million undocumented immigrants could diminish GDP and employment in the U.S. by 0.8% by 2028. A more extensive mass deportation exceeding 8 million immigrants would have a more profound effect, reducing U.S. employment by 5.1% below the current baseline.
Undocumented immigrants contributed significant amounts to federal and state/local taxes, totaling $59.4 billion and $37.3 billion, respectively. A considerable portion of these tax contributions supported essential programs such as Medicaid, Social Security, and unemployment insurance.
Over 4 million families could face separation
Mass deportation would not solely impact citizens in terms of job opportunities but would also affect family members who are U.S. citizens. Approximately 4.1 million mixed-status families and 4.4 million U.S.-born children living with an undocumented parent currently reside in the U.S.
Consequences of parental deportation include disrupted education, trauma, mental health challenges, behavioral issues in children, and economic burdens on spouses. Immigrants facing deportation often experience disorientation and existential uncertainty.
The economic, social, emotional, and community costs resulting from mass deportations are estimated to be immensely high.
