CBS News poll: Trump still leads Biden in key states before Republican convention
Donald Trump and the Republican Party are gearing up for their convention week with a slight edge in the battleground states, positioning Trump favorably in the Electoral College race at the moment.
Since the debate, sentiments have tilted a bit towards Trump, maintaining a stable contest thus far.
It’s important to note that these polls and estimates were conducted before the recent unfortunate incident at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania.
These state-level estimates are a result of CBS News’ statistical model, utilizing surveys from voters in seven battleground states.
As seen over the past few months, Trump benefits from a higher percentage of Republicans who express intention to vote compared to Democrats.
Across the battleground states, Biden continues to lag significantly among voters who doubt his cognitive and mental capabilities.
Despite positive indicators in the macroeconomic landscape and news regarding the U.S. economy, only half of voters perceive their financial situation positively. Trump gains support from individuals who believe their incomes have not kept pace with inflation.
National Picture: Biden and the Democrats
In a separate national survey focusing on Democrats and Republican preferences for the upcoming convention:
Discussions about whether Biden should step down as the party’s nominee or his defiance against the idea have not significantly impacted public opinion on the matter.
Close to half of Democrats believe he should step aside – a slight increase from right after the debate.
When Democratic voters are asked to analyze a hypothetical Kamala Harris candidacy, opinions vary widely based on views about Biden. Those who support Harris against Trump also advocate for Biden to step down.
Trump and His Vice President
Reflecting Trump’s prominence within the party, there is more satisfaction among rank-and-file Republicans with him as the nominee now compared to when he first secured the nomination in 2016. Twice as many Republicans are excited about his candidacy today.
With Trump’s vice-presidential choice pending, Republican voters largely express satisfaction but not overwhelming enthusiasm for the potential candidates under consideration. Many remain undecided, which is common prior to a convention.
(Notably, Nikki Haley’s absence from the list of potential running mates would disappoint and draw discontent, especially among MAGA Republicans.)
Although the nominee’s prospects are brightening, Republicans continue to harbor doubts about the electoral process. Half of the party believes they should challenge the election results if Trump doesn’t win this year.
A majority of Republicans have persistently expressed skepticism about Biden’s legitimacy following the 2020 election and believe widespread fraud marred the vote.
Interest in the campaign remains high post-debate, with around 60% of registered voters indicating they are actively thinking about the 2024 race these days.
Data Overview:
Battleground States Survey: The CBS News/YouGov survey included 1,093 registered voters in battleground states between July 5-12, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, with a margin of error of ±3.4 points. The battleground states surveyed were AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
State-level Estimates of Vote Choice: CBS’s statistical model used multi-level regression with post-stratification to estimate two-way support in each battleground state, factoring in survey responses, voter files, U.S. Census data, and past state votes.
National Survey: The CBS News/YouGov survey interviewed 2,004 registered voters nationwide between July 10-13, 2024, with an oversample of self-identified Republicans. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, with a margin of error of ±2.8 points.
