Democrats are ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for 2024 Senate races, according to new poll.

Democrats Take the Lead in Crucial Senate Races

As the 2024 U.S. Senate map poses a significant challenge for Democrats, recent polls show them leading in three key races. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is currently leading former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by a margin of 7 points, according to CBS News’ latest poll. Similarly, Senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are both ahead in their reelection bids by 7 and 8 points, respectively.

Analysis of the races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin indicates that the current landscape aligns with previous assessments conducted in the spring. One notable difference is the decrease in undecided voters, with both Democratic and Republican candidates in each state seeing a boost in support.

Although the presidential race remains tightly contested in all three states, Democratic Senate candidates have managed to secure a lead due to some split-ticket voting. Casey and Baldwin are currently winning over independent voters, who are evenly split between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and GOP nominee Donald Trump for the presidential race. Despite strong backing from Republican voters for their party’s nominees across the board, GOP Senate candidates are trailing behind Trump among these voters, creating an opportunity for growth.

It is important to note that these poll results offer a snapshot of the current state of the race, rather than definitive predictions. With eight weeks remaining until Election Day, there is still potential for shifts in voter sentiment. One potential factor that could influence the races is the inclination of undecided voters towards the Republican Party. Given their past voting behavior and partisan leanings, if these voters align with the GOP for the Senate race as they do for the presidential race, the Democrats’ leads could narrow significantly.

The CBS News/YouGov surveys that informed these findings were conducted between September 3-6, 2024. The polls drew samples of 1,086 registered voters in Michigan, 1,085 in Pennsylvania, and 958 in Wisconsin, providing a margin of error of +/- 3.7 points for Michigan, +/- 3.5 points for Pennsylvania, and +/- 4.0 points for Wisconsin.

While these results offer valuable insights into the current political landscape, the dynamic nature of elections means that these races are far from decided. As Deputy Director of Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News, Kabir Khanna emphasizes the importance of continued analysis and monitoring of voter behavior to accurately project race outcomes. Khanna’s expertise in political behavior and methodology, backed by a Ph.D. in political science from Princeton University, positions him as a trusted source for electoral analysis.