GOP Primaries Chaos May Help Democrats in Swing States
Republicans are gearing up to capitalize on the challenging Senate election map for Democrats in November. However, the crowded primary races in key swing states could pose a hurdle for the GOP in capturing essential Senate seats, experts say.
Jacob Neiheisel, an associate professor of political science at the State University of New York at Buffalo, pointed out, “Campaign lore would suggest that any ‘divisive primary’ is going to advantage the other party at the polls in the general.”
In Nevada, set to hold its Senate primaries on June 11, and Michigan, with primary elections scheduled for August, the Republican fields have turned out to be crowded despite having clear frontrunners. Both Senate seats are currently held by Democrats, with Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada seeking re-election and Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan opting to retire at the end of her term, making Michigan’s Senate race more competitive.
Nevada’s Senate race is considered a “toss-up” by the non-partisan political handicapper, the Cook Political Report, while Michigan’s election is labeled “Lean Democratic.”
Republican strategist Ron Bonjean expressed concern over Trump’s expected endorsement potentially impacting the Senate GOP’s prospects in Nevada, stating, “If he endorses [Jeff] Gunter over Brown and his popularity, it could very well give Sen. Rosen and Democrats the upper hand at winning here.” Gunter, a former Trump ambassador to Iceland, is financing his own campaign against frontrunner Ret. Army Capt. Sam Brown in the GOP primary in Nevada.
In Nevada, prominent contenders for the Republican Senate nomination include Brown, Gunter, and former Nevada State Rep. Jim Marchant.
Despite suggestions that the primary drama could spill over into the general election, Nevada Republican strategist Jeremy Hughes stated, “Crowded primaries are commonplace in today’s politics. Republican voters will be united come November.”
Endorsed by Trump, former Rep. Mike Rogers is favored to secure the Republican nomination in Michigan. Wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler, endorsed by former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Rep. Justin Amash are also in the running. Another former representative, Peter Meijer, recently suspended his primary campaign.
While Rogers is expected to maintain his frontrunner status and secure the nomination in August, Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe highlighted the challenge of limited time to ramp up the general election campaign if Rogers has to continue battling in the primary against Amash and Pensler.
Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin is favored to win the Democratic nomination in Michigan and is facing a primary challenger in actor Hill Harper. Slotkin has focused more on her general election campaign and has been strong in fundraising, poised to have a significant financial advantage by the end of the primary.
Republican strategist Maggie Abboud expressed confidence in Rogers and Brown winning their respective primaries and making Michigan and Nevada competitive in the November election. However, DSCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia criticized the roster of Senate Republicans’ recruits, citing vulnerabilities and chaos in primaries.
Ultimately, the outcome of the general election in both states will hinge on the quality of the candidates, according to Neiheisel. “Candidate quality still matters even in a polarized era of politics,” he emphasized.
