Harris helps Democrats in strong blue states
Vice President Kamala Harris has been a key player in helping the Democratic party regain control in one of its traditional strongholds, the state of New York. A recent poll conducted by the Siena College Research Institute showed Harris leading former President Trump by a significant margin of 53-39 among likely voters in New York, indicating a growing support for the Democratic ticket.
While a 14-point lead may seem narrow in a state that has historically voted Democratic by large margins, it signifies a positive trend for the party. In previous versions of the Siena College poll, President Biden had only held leads of 8 to 10 points, highlighting the impact of Harris stepping into the role at the top of the ticket.
According to pollster Steven Greenberg, the change in leadership has had a noticeable effect on the race. Harris now enjoys the support of 86% of Democrats, a significant increase from the 75% support Biden received in June. Additionally, Harris leads among Black voters by a wide margin of 81-11%, showing a strong connection with key voter demographics.
One of the key factors contributing to Harris’s lead is her favorable approval ratings in New York compared to both Biden and Trump. With a 53% favorable rating, Harris surpasses both her opponents, with only 43% of respondents viewing her unfavorably. In contrast, Trump’s favorability ratings hover between 37% to 39%, while Biden’s June rating was at 42-53.
In a scenario where the election includes all likely candidates, Harris remains the only candidate with a positive favorability rating in New York. The poll also revealed that in a six-way election, Harris’s lead drops slightly to 12 points, with a notable percentage of voters expressing interest in supporting minor party candidates.
As Harris’s popularity grows in New York, national polls have also shown a shift in favor of the Democratic ticket since her elevation to the top of the ticket. Real Clear Politics polling average now indicates Harris holding a slim lead over Trump nationally, marking a significant change from previous outlooks.
In the realm of betting markets, the odds have tightened considerably following Biden’s exit from the race. The Real Clear Politics Betting Average now places Trump at a 52% chance of winning, with Harris close behind at 46.3%. This shift in odds reflects the evolving dynamics of the race and the impact of Harris’s candidacy.
Overall, the Siena College Research Institute poll offers valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the presidential race, particularly in a key state like New York. Harris’s strong performance in the state and her growing national popularity indicate a positive trend for the Democratic party as they head into the upcoming election.
