Historian predicts winner of Trump-Harris election.
Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds the “Keys to the White House” in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, according to election forecaster Allan Lichtman. Lichtman, known for accurately predicting presidential races since 1984, uses a formula consisting of 13 true or false questions to forecast the outcome of an upcoming presidential election.
The “keys” cover a range of factors including party mandate, incumbency, economy, policy change, social unrest, and foreign/military success, among others. As of now, Democrats, with Harris likely to be the nominee, have secured six keys, while Republicans hold three keys in their favor.
However, there are still four keys yet to be determined, including the impact of a potential third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the absence of social unrest, and foreign/military outcomes. Should Democrats lose three more keys, Lichtman’s formula would predict them to be the “losers” in the 2024 race.
Despite not yet making a final prediction, Lichtman expressed confidence in Harris’s chances, stating that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.” The historian will make his official forecast after the Democratic National Convention in August, where the Democratic nominee will be officially selected.
Overall, the race for the White House in 2024 remains unpredictable, with several key factors still up in the air. As the election cycle progresses, Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” will continue to provide insight into the potential outcome of this highly anticipated political showdown.
