How Americans view the economy in the election.
With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, millions of Americans say the economy is a top issue as they decide how to cast their vote — an understandable focus after the rollercoaster of the past four years, which included everything from a bear market to the hottest inflation since the 1980s.
But with the chaos of the pandemic behind us and inflation edging close to its pre-2020 levels, the U.S. economy is ripe for a fresh assessment of its strengths and weaknesses, along with whether the Biden administration’s economic policies have paid off.
By many measures, the U.S. economy has regained its footing, emerging from the health crisis with the type of growth that it experienced prior to 2020. Gross domestic product is growing solidly, while unemployment and the labor market have also rebalanced, remaining close to their pre-pandemic levels. Critically, inflation has dropped to a three-year low and is approaching the Federal Reserve’s annual target of 2%.
To the surprise of many forecasters, that rebound occurred even as the Fed boosted interest rates to a 23-year high in an effort to cool inflation. Historically, such rate hikes have often led to recessions. But so far, the U.S. has avoided a downturn and appears to be heading for a “soft landing.”
“In the 35 years I’ve been an economist, I’ve rarely seen an economy performing as well as it is,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, told CBS MoneyWatch. “I’d give it an A+.”
Like Zandi, many other experts are giving the economy strong marks. The U.S. economy is being described as “hot, hot, hot” in a report from Yardeni Research. The job market is resilient, and there is no quit in the U.S. consumer, according to analysts at Oxford Economics.
Yet many Americans might scoff at such bullish assessments: 6 in 10 now describe the U.S. economy as either “fairly bad” or “very bad,” according to CBS News polling.
That’s not lost on Zandi and other economists. “The difference between the happy talk of economists and what people say has never been this wide,” he noted.
Only 1 in 10 Americans rate the economy as “very good,” according to CBS News, while 52% say they are worse off today than they were four years ago, according to Gallup.
“Despite recent economic data suggesting the labor market, consumer spending, and the overall economy are proving to be very resilient and strong, consumers’ sentiment about economic conditions and future prospects remain downbeat,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, told CBS MoneyWatch.
The discordant economic views among experts and typical Americans reflect several factors, including persisting high prices, financial realities facing households, mounting inequality in wealth and income, and political polarization.
Indeed, there are major partisan and educational divides in how people assess the economy, as shown in CBS News polling. For one, Republicans are much more likely to give the economy poor marks than Democrats, a reflection of partisan views about the direction of the nation.
Should Donald Trump win in November, Zandi predicts that attitudes about the economy will shift dramatically based on political affiliation. Additionally, there is a gap between people with and without college degrees, indicating deep-rooted inequality issues in the U.S.
An important metric in understanding economic realities is the “misery” index, which represents the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. While the current index is below its historical average, Americans face financial pressures beyond inflation and job market health.
Inflation has dipped to a three-year low, but prices remain elevated, reflecting the impact of the pandemic. Grocery prices, for example, are significantly higher than they were four years ago, impacting lower-income households the most.
The U.S. unemployment rate remains low, and hiring remains relatively strong, but consumers still struggle with the financial burden of high prices. This sets the stage for how people perceive the health of the economy.
While the stock market continues to hit record highs this year, not all Americans benefit from rising asset prices. Many are struggling to afford basic necessities due to the persisting high cost of living.
Overall, the U.S. economy has shown resilience and growth in various sectors, but the disconnect between economic data and people’s everyday financial struggles is a crucial aspect to consider when evaluating the nation’s economic well-being.