How RFK Jr.’s decision could impact Trump in the polls.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent announcement of suspending his independent bid for the presidency and endorsing Donald Trump has left many wondering about the impact it will have on the upcoming election. With Kennedy’s support dwindling over time, particularly after Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, the numbers have shifted in favor of the other candidates.

Prior to Biden’s exit from the race, polls indicated a gradual decrease in Kennedy’s support from 11% to 8%. However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee, Kennedy’s numbers have dropped even further, currently averaging at 4%. As Harris gains ground against Trump, Kennedy has lost some of his supporters, who were potentially leaning towards the Democratic side but have now shifted to Harris.

Now, the question remains – how many of Kennedy’s remaining supporters, representing about 4% of the electorate, will now turn to Trump? It is likely that this final group of supporters leans slightly more towards the right than the left, given Kennedy’s recent shift towards being an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist.

Kennedy’s family legacy as a Democratic icon, combined with his recent controversies, has garnered him more support among Republicans than Democrats. Hence, it is not surprising that approximately 55% of Kennedy’s remaining voters are inclined towards Trump, while the rest favor Harris.

While Kennedy’s exit may not have a significant impact on the overall election, it could potentially sway the results in key swing states. If Trump were to gain a majority of Kennedy’s supporters, Harris’s lead could narrow slightly. However, the actual effect might be smaller, as Republican-leaning Kennedy voters have other options, such as supporting a third-party candidate or abstaining from voting.

Speculations about a possible quid pro quo deal for a Cabinet position in exchange for Kennedy’s endorsement could influence some of his supporters to lean towards Trump. However, the outcome remains uncertain, as some voters may be turned off by such arrangements.

Considering the pivotal role that small margins in swing states played in Trump’s previous victories, Kennedy’s recent decision could potentially impact the upcoming election, albeit to a minor extent.