Poll shows Biden struggling in important states while other Democrats are ahead.
Democrats have the upper hand in four critical battleground Senate races this year, but President Biden isn’t faring as well, according to recent polls released by the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College on Monday.
The Democratic incumbents or nominees in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all leading their GOP opponents with less than six months left until the November elections. However, President Biden is consistently falling behind former President Trump in several key battleground states, often by significant margins.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is ahead of his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, by a margin of 46% to 41%. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 40%.
The races in Arizona and Nevada are showing a tighter contest, with likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 45% to 41%, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown 40% to 38%. Notably, the polls did not include Brown’s primary challenger, former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Dr. Jeffrey Gunter, who is expected to provide strong competition for the GOP nomination.
Former President Trump is leading Biden in the majority of battleground states, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan. However, in Wisconsin, Biden maintains a narrow lead of 47% to 45%.
Renowned independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. inclusion in the polls significantly boosts Trump’s advantage. In Arizona, Trump garners 42% of the vote compared to Biden’s 33% and Kennedy’s 10%. Similarly, in Nevada, 41% support Trump, 27% support Biden, and 12% support Kennedy.
In Wisconsin, the race between Trump and Biden is tied at 38%, with Kennedy at 9%. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania widens by four points to 40% to 36%, with Kennedy at 10%.
Biden is also trailing Trump in Georgia by a margin of 39% to 31%, with Kennedy at 9%. In Michigan, Trump leads by 38% to 36%, with Kennedy also at 9%.
There seems to be a shift among traditionally Democratic-supporting minority groups towards either Trump or Kennedy. Hispanic voters in battleground states are divided, with 31% supporting Biden, 31% supporting Trump, and 14% supporting Kennedy.
Despite holding a significant advantage with Black voters in the same states, with 49% support, Biden is seeing 14% backing Trump and 11% supporting Kennedy.
Currently, only 36% of voters in battleground states approve of the job President Biden is doing, while 60% disapprove.
When it comes to favorability, Trump is edging out Biden with 45% viewing the former president favorably and 53% unfavorably. In contrast, only 40% view Biden favorably, with 59% viewing him unfavorably.
Looking ahead, Senate races in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, and Maryland are also seen as potential opportunities for Republicans to pick up seats in November. Given the Democrats’ slim one-seat margin in the Senate, Republicans need to win at least two of these races and hold onto their other seats up for reelection to gain control of the chamber.
If Trump secures a victory in the White House, Republicans would only need to win one of these races to control the chamber, as his vice president would serve as the tie-breaking vote.
