Poll shows Trump in the lead over Biden before CNN debate, increase in Black voter support.

Former President Trump is currently leading President Biden by a four-percentage-point margin in a national poll released ahead of their first 2024 televised presidential debate hosted by CNN on Thursday.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, released on Wednesday, revealed that 48% of the electorate would vote for Trump, the Republican candidate, while 44% would vote for Biden, the Democratic candidate, if the election were held on the same day. This marks a shift from April’s poll, which showed Trump leading Biden by just one percentage point.

When asked whether Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee, 61% of respondents believed there should be a different Democratic nominee, while 33% supported Biden staying on. On the Republican side, 54% thought there should be a different nominee, but 41% believed Trump should continue as the candidate.

Interestingly, the poll showed that 26% of Black likely voters would support Trump in the 2024 election, compared to 65% who said they would support Biden. This represents a significant increase in support for Trump among Black voters since the 2020 election, where only 5% of Black registered voters said they would support him.

It’s worth noting that 68% of national registered voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests and riots following George Floyd’s death in police custody in Minneapolis.

The poll, which surveyed 1,226 registered voters nationwide, including 991 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish from June 20 to 25.

Participants were also asked about their views on the age of the candidates, with 68% believing Biden is too old to be an effective president and 39% saying the same for Trump.

Following Trump’s criminal conviction in a hush-money case, where only 11% of respondents were more likely to support him and 19% were less likely, most people (68%) stated that the conviction made no difference in their support for Trump.

When asked about the charges against Trump, 55% believed he should not be sentenced to prison in the hush-money case, while 37% were in favor of prison time.

With just over four months until the Election Day, Thursday’s debate presents both candidates with a unique opportunity to potentially change the course of the race.

This debate will mark the first time Trump and Biden have been on the same stage or spoken since their last debate before the 2020 election. Trump notably skipped Biden’s inauguration.

The debate, scheduled to be broadcast on CNN, will be the earliest general election debate in history. It is also the first televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns decided to forego the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which has overseen debates since 1988.

To ensure a more controlled debate environment, without interruptions and chaos, both candidates agreed to hold the debate without an audience, allowing the network to mute their microphones when it’s not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks and the candidates have committed not to consult with their staff or others while the cameras are off.

It remains to be seen how this debate will impact the presidential race as it unfolds on Thursday.