Trump and Harris are very close in the race after Vance debate victory.
Recent Poll Shows Harris Leading Trump by a Slender Margin
A new poll conducted from Oct. 2 to 4 of 1,714 U.S. adults has revealed that Vice President Harris has a slight edge over President Trump. The poll indicates that Harris leads Trump by just two points, with 48% of respondents supporting Harris and 46% supporting Trump.
However, when third-party candidates are included, Harris’ advantage among registered voters shrinks to 46% compared to 45% for Trump. Among likely voters, the race is neck and neck, with Harris and Trump tied at 47% each.
Has Harris’ Debate Bump Faded?
Earlier polls in August showed Harris and Trump tied at 47% among likely voters, a trend that has continued into October. Harris briefly held a four-point lead in September (49% to 45%), but that lead has since disappeared. Similar patterns are observed among registered voters and with or without third-party candidates.
The slight fluctuation in numbers suggests that any shifts in the presidential contest may be attributed to how voters perceive Harris and Trump individually, rather than how they view the two major parties collectively.
A Good Showing for Vance, But Did It Impact Trump?
The recent vice presidential debate was likely of little consequence in swaying the presidential race. With few persuadable voters, low viewership, and historical data showing minimal impact from VP debates, it is unlikely that this event significantly influenced voter opinions.
Moving on to the candidates’ performances, both Harris and Trump received positive ratings. Vance scored higher, with 59% rating him as excellent or good compared to 52% for Walz. Vance’s excellent rating of 30% also surpassed Walz’s 16%.
Despite his strong performance, Vance continues to trail in popularity compared to Walz. While more Americans learned about Vance during the debate and held a more positive view of him afterward, his favorability rating (37%) still lags behind Walz’s (43%). Additionally, Vance’s unfavorable rating of 48% is higher than Walz’s 40%.
Walz was perceived as delivering better responses on certain issues, such as abortion and the events of January 6, while Vance was seen as less truthful and more responsible for creating an infuriating and frightening atmosphere during the debate.
Reassuring the Republican Base
Despite his popularity deficit, Vance was successful in solidifying support among the Republican base. A larger percentage of Americans now believe that Trump made the right decision in selecting Vance as his running mate. This sentiment has increased from 32% in late August to 38% post-debate.
Republicans are nearly as convinced of Vance’s suitability as Democrats are of Walz’s. Reflecting this shift, 37% of Americans now believe Vance is prepared to serve as president, a significant increase from 30% in August.
A Cordial and Civil Debate
The vice presidential debate was praised for its relatively civil and informative tone, a departure from the combative debates of the past. Viewers described the event using adjectives like civil and informative, with only a small fraction finding it boring or embarrassing.
Overall, the debate seems to have reinforced existing perceptions rather than significantly altering the dynamics of the presidential race. As the election draws near, the focus will shift to how candidates continue to engage with voters and present their visions for the future.
