Trump is ahead of Biden in polls after debate, Democrats may have low voter turnout.

After the first 2024 presidential debate, the race for president has taken an interesting turn in favor of Donald Trump. Trump now holds a 3-point lead over President Biden in the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point lead nationally. This shift seems to be driven by motivation rather than persuasion, as Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.

With both candidates being well-known and the electorate heavily partisan, it’s not surprising that over 90% of both Mr. Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate. This explains why the race has been relatively stable for months, despite previous moments where Biden gained momentum, such as after Trump’s conviction of felonies in New York back in June.

While the preference contest implies an Electoral College advantage for Trump, half of Joe Biden’s 2020 voters don’t believe he should be running this year. When they hold this belief, they are less likely to turn out in 2024 and more likely to choose either Trump or a third-party candidate.

Donald Trump seems to have bolstered support among Republicans after the debate, making them more likely to vote. Independents remain a contested group, with Trump now holding a slight edge with them. Republicans, both nationwide and across battleground states, are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024, giving Trump an advantage with likely voters.

In a national ballot test that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Trump’s lead over Mr. Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from both candidates, but Mr. Biden loses more supporters to Stein and West, reducing his overall percentage. Age seems to be a factor for many voters, and when they see an equivalence in both candidates’ ages, Mr. Biden benefits by leading among those who acknowledge the issue.

However, Mr. Biden struggles among voters for whom only his age is a concern. Immediately post-debate, CBS News polling showed increasing numbers of voters doubting Mr. Biden’s cognitive health and suitability for the job. While the belief that he should not be running has slightly decreased since the debate, it remains a dominant view among voters, including a significant portion of Democrats.

When it comes to personal qualities, Mr. Biden falls behind Trump in terms of being seen as competent, tough, and focused. Trump continues to be perceived as more compassionate in comparison. CBS News identifies the battleground states as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as the key states likely to decide the election in the Electoral College.

The CBS News/YouGov survey conducted with 2,826 registered voters nationwide between June 28-July 2, 2024, provides insights into the shifting dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points, with Battlegrounds identified as AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.