Trump’s lead decreases as Biden gains ground during first criminal trial.

Recent polls indicate a close race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden among registered voters. Last month, Trump had a slight lead with 46% compared to Biden’s 44%. Towards the end of January, Trump was ahead with 45% to Biden’s 44%. These results fall within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting a neck-and-neck competition between the two candidates.

However, the polls also highlight a potential challenge for Trump. As a candidate who has never garnered more than 47% of the national popular vote, he faces the possibility of becoming the first convicted felon in U.S. history to lead a major party’s presidential ticket.

When voters were asked whom they would support if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the upcoming months, only 36% indicated they would vote for the former president. This number has declined from 40% in March, indicating a diminishing support for Trump in such a scenario. Conversely, Biden’s backing increased by 1 point to 45%, giving him a 9-point advantage over Trump in the event of a criminal conviction.

In terms of perception of serious crimes, a majority of Americans consider the charges against Trump, including falsifying business records, taking classified documents, obstructing election certification, and conspiring to overturn election results, to be serious offenses. These perceptions have been on the rise.

Despite Biden’s lead in these polls, he faces vulnerabilities regarding his age and economic policies. Approval ratings for his presidency stand at 40%, with 54% disapproving – a notably low approval rating among modern presidents. Additionally, Trump holds a significant advantage over Biden in terms of perceived age and fitness for the presidency, with more Americans viewing Trump favorably in these aspects.

Although the post-pandemic U.S. economy has been showing signs of improvement, a majority of Americans still believe that economic conditions are worsening rather than getting better. Perceptions of inflation are also negative, with a growing number of Americans seeing inflation as a worsening issue.

Despite the improvement in the U.S. inflation rate from 8.2% in September 2022 to 3.5% today, many Americans remain concerned about the economic outlook and inflation trends.

If Trump were to be convicted of a serious crime, it could significantly impact the presidential race. While more Americans currently view Trump’s criminal charges as a bigger problem than Biden’s age, perceptions may shift as the election approaches. A majority of Americans believe that Trump should not be allowed to serve again if convicted, with only a minority supporting his return to office.

The dynamics of the upcoming presidential race may change based on these factors, with both Trump and Biden facing challenges and opportunities in the public eye.