Will the outcome of Trump’s criminal trial impact the White House race in 2024?

With the closing arguments in former President Trump’s criminal trial scheduled for early in the week ahead, the impending verdict in this historic case could have serious consequences in the 2024 election between the former president and President Biden.

Trump currently holds a slight edge in national polling and public opinion surveys in most of the crucial battleground states that will likely decide their election rematch. However, Trump faces the possibility of being convicted on some or all of the nearly three-dozen state felony charges he is currently facing in his trial in New York City, marking the first time in the nation’s history that a former or current president has faced such charges.

Both Trump and Biden supporters firmly believe in their respective candidate’s innocence or guilt, which has led to deeply entrenched opinions regarding both individuals.

Trump is charged with falsifying business records in connection to payments made during the 2016 election to Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged affair. Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels $130,000 in return for her silence regarding accusations of an affair with Trump in 2006.

Throughout the trial, both Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels testified for the prosecution and faced intense questioning from Trump’s defense team. This case has garnered significant attention on cable news networks, online platforms, and social media.

Trump has vehemently denied falsifying business records and the alleged encounter with Daniels, claiming the trial is orchestrated from the White House and Department of Justice without providing any evidence to support these accusations.

The judge in the case has fined Trump multiple times and even threatened him with jail time for violating a gag order intended to protect witnesses and jurors from verbal attacks by the former president.

A recent survey indicated that only 27% of respondents believed Trump had done nothing seriously wrong, but this number significantly increased to 54% among Trump supporters. The survey also revealed a roughly even split between those who believed Trump’s legal treatment was fair (51%) or unfair (47%), with a noticeable partisan divide.

Despite the impending verdict in Trump’s trial, recent national polls suggest that a guilty verdict may not significantly impact voter behavior. The majority of registered voters in one survey stated that a guilty verdict would not influence their decision on who to vote for in the upcoming election.

While some Trump supporters indicated they would still back him if found guilty, others stated they might reconsider their support. However, experts predict that any negative impact on Trump’s poll numbers would likely be temporary and may not significantly alter the landscape of the race.

Paul Steinhauser, a politics reporter based in New Hampshire, emphasized the deeply entrenched views that exist regarding both Trump and Biden, suggesting that a guilty verdict in Trump’s trial may not significantly sway opinions on the presidential ballot.

Although the outcome of the trial remains uncertain, the historic nature of this case is expected to have lasting implications, regardless of the verdict. The trial has brought unwanted attention to Trump’s campaign and has not provided the positive narrative he may have hoped for.